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BIG 12 ROUNDTABLE: Week Seven

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via assets.sbnation.com 
 

This week's Roundtable is brought to you by the boys at Crimson and Cream Machine. Since I have temporarily usurped TB's mod powers for the day, I get go first. Mwahaha.

1. What is the biggest Big 12 game this weekend not involving OU and Texas? Why?

BracketCat: I'll approach this from a statistical angle. There are five games this week pitting a Top 5 scoring defense (all allowing less than 10 points per game) against an offense scoring more than 32.6 points per game (my thanks to Rivals.com for that tidbit). They are Florida vs. Arkansas, Nebraska vs. Texas Tech, Oklahoma vs. Texas, USC vs. Notre Dame and USF vs. Cincinnati. Not coincidentally, those are some of the best matchups on TV this week, as well.

By the process of elimination and in accordance with the stated parameters, I'll throw out the Red River Shootout (bite me, political correctness) and the non-Big 12 games, leaving me with my answer: Texas Tech at Nebraska. It will be fascinating to see if Ndamukong Suh can wreak the same kind of havoc on Texas Tech's offensive line and passing game as he did to Missouri.

Plus, after having the image of Steven "Sticks" Sheffield lobbing TD passes like grenades against the K-State secondary burned into my brain seven times last Saturday, I am eager to watch him eat some Memorial Stadium turf - even if that means rooting for the Huskers, a team of which I am not particularly fond.

Runner-up is Missouri at Oklahoma State, two evenly matched teams who played a classic last season in Columbia.

TB: This is probably everyone's answer, but Nebraska vs. Texas Tech intrigues me. While the popular storyline out of last Thursday's win over Missouri seemed to be ZOMG 'SKERZ BE ROLLIN!!!, I was a little more reserved in what I think that game meant. Some Husker fans are talking about this being a potential "trap" game, but I think that title is inaccurate. They're playing a high-powered, South division opponent, and in the last five years or so, none of the North teams have proven they can beat even the middling South teams consistently. In other words, this game is sort of a referendum. Can Nebraska beat one of the better South teams?

For that matter, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game serves the same purpose on a smaller level. Mizzou is not the top dog in the North this year, but with injuries and suspensions, Oklahoma State is in the pack with Texas Tech as the teams closest to OU and UT in the South. If the North teams win both of these games, it will go a long way toward reversing the tide of talk about realignment and other silliness we heard too often last season. Of course, if the North teams lose, all that talk will only fire right back up again.

Star-divide

2. Sam Bradford has been hurt, Colt McCoy is throwing picks (6 Ints/10 TDs)and Dez Bryant has been suspended by the NCAA. Does the Big 12 have a legit Heisman contender left?

BracketCat: Ndamukong Suh? If only...

TB: No. Ndamukong Suh is not going to win it. Sorry, Nebraska fans. Jordan Shipley is probably the closest thing to a contender the conference has left, but he's such a late addition to the conversation I doubt he can overcome the Heisman voter inertia.

3. Its pretty much a consensus of opinions that Dan Hawkins is already standing with one foot out the door at Colorado. Who has the better chance of getting off the hot seat this season, him or Bobby Bowden?

BracketCat: Bobby Bowden, because he actually has accomplished something at his current school, such as posting a winning season, winning a bowl game and collecting at least one conference title. Once you remove all references to Chris Petersen, Dan Hawkin's resume is thinner than truck stop toilet paper. And he gets bonus points for the losing record against Ron Prince. Which is why I hope they give him a 10-year extension, of course.

TB: Hawkins, though not necessarily by improving the play of his team. Bowden is old and has a coach-in-waiting already under contract to take over. They have serious leverage on him, in other words. Hawkins, on the other hand, might make some strides over the remainder of the season that point toward improvement, however of a moderate degree. The big problem for CU is that they probably don't have the money to pay his buyout. If they can't, he gets off the hot seat by default.

4. We've got one full weekend of conference play under our belts. Who can you say, with confidence, that is out of the North and South division races already?

BracketCat: Uh, gee... K-State, whose defense just got shelled worse than No Man's Land? Iowa State, the only FBS team to actually lose to us? Colorado, the team that makes the previous two look like bowl-bound success stories? All good candidates in the North.

In the South, only Baylor really is out of it. Despite looking competitive against Oklahoma absent Robert Griffin, I suspect any team not named Oklahoma is going to have to dethrone the champs on the field to win the South with at least an asterisk. Baylor scored an F on that count. No one else has taken the test yet.

TB: K-State, Colorado and Iowa State are out of it in the North. With the loss to Nebraska, Missouri is standing at the door saying its farewells, unless it unexpectedly beats Oklahoma State this weekend and gets a warm reinvitation to do another round of shots.

In the South, Baylor is done. They may pick up a win we're not expecting because I thought Nick Florence played fairly well against OU in his first start, but they're done for. Texas A&M can be counted out, too. If they can't beat at home an OSU team that is short players like it got hit by the H1N1 flu, it's not going to be in the mix. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are the ones standing at the door saying their goodbyes, Tech because of the loss to Texas and Okie State because of the aforementioned issues.

5. Which race is going to be better in the North, the race to win the division or the race to stay out of the cellar?

BracketCat: LOL. Good one, guys. Since I think Nebraska's defensive line is going to pummel Todd Reesing into mincemeat no matter where the game is played, I'd have to say the trash-heap race is more compelling. Of course, I'm biased, since my team already has a leg up in that race due to a fantastic Farmageddon finish.

TB: I have a team in the race for the cellar, and even I don't give a shit.

6. OU/Texas - Who ya got?

BracketCat: Texas, by one point.

7. Big 12 Power Rankings - Let's see 'em!

BracketCat: Big shakeup this week, but that's what happens when you're losing at home to Colorado at halftime.

1. Nebraska -- Crazy talk? Maybe. But Ndamukong Suh is beginning to look like a once-in-a-decade kind of player, and Texas ain't anything special right now.
2. Texas -- If these two meet in the Big 12 Championship, Texas may have the home crowd, but I'm not so sure they could beat the Huskers on a neutral field the way they are playing so far. I'd put the over/under on Texas rushing yards in that game at 50.
3. Oklahoma -- Still haven't beat anyone of substance, but this week is their chance.
4. Kansas -- Despite the crappy defense, Jayhawks remain unblemished and merit Top 4 consideration. But their time is coming...
T5. Missouri -- I'll let the two of them duke it out for sole control of this spot next week.
T5. Oklahoma State -- Ditto.
7. Texas Tech -- No, you don't get to move up for running it up on an overmatched opponent. Shame on you.
8. Baylor -- Vaults A&M again with a good showing in Norman. These ain't your pappy's old, lay-down-and-die Bears.
9. Texas A&M -- Their offensive numbers mean nothing. Try beating a BCS team for a change. Oops, probably spoke too soon.
10. Iowa State -- Two years in a row, the Cyclones should have beat the Jayhawks. Of course, two years in a row, they should have won the Big 12 North. Welcome to life in Ames.
11. Colorado -- Nice first-half moral victory, Buffs.
12. Kansas State -- 66-14? Yeah, we're 12th... blocked PAT notwithstanding.

TB: Power pollin'

1. Texas -- Yes, they had some issues against Colorado, they can't run the ball, and Colt McCoy isn't as clutch as Texas fans thought. But they have the most firepower and talent of any team, and if they can shed the Texas attitude of "we'll do just enough to win, given the opponent," they'll be fine.
2. Oklahoma -- Both of its losses have been in narrow fashion to pretty good teams. Really need to get the offensive line figured out, and getting a few skill players healthy wouldn't hurt, but they have the most upside and least questions of anyone outside of Texas.
3. Nebraska -- If the game had ended at 45 minutes last week, no Husker fans would be having visions of an 11-1 season dancing in their heads. Of course, it was 60 minutes, and for some reason, now some of them do.
4. Oklahoma State -- Jump the beaks because they gutted out a tough win on the road through adversity. Who knows how they'll fare over the long run without Dez Bryant, but they still have a solid team.
5. KU -- If they don't get that defense fixed, they're staring at the possibility of losing to every team not named K-State or Colorado remaining on their schedule. Note I'm not saying they will lose, but when your game is trying to outscore the opposition, you're running a risk each time out.
6. Missouri -- I really shouldn't drop the Tigers this far, because I'm not sure you can learn a whole lot from a game played in the rain with a one-legged quarterback. But the lack of a running game and the fourth-quarter disintegration by the defense was alarming.
7. Texas Tech -- Had a discussion with a friend today, and wanted to pose this question: If Mike Leach coached a school where he got elite talent (Texas, Florida, USC, etc.), would he ever lose? His scheme is practically unstoppable unless you have at least equivalent athleticism, but at Texas Tech, he's recruited at a solid level, but not in the neighborhood of those other schools just listed. Thoughts?
8. Texas A&M -- Played OSU tough at home, but given the adversity OSU was facing, I'm not sure whether that's much of a moral victory. Pains me to say it, but they should pick up a road win this weekend when they play K-State.
9. Baylor -- Pinball Bears are back up to here by virtue of a better-than-expected showing against OU (it says something about how bad Baylor has been that a 26-point loss to OU is an improvement). Still aren't anything special, but the three amigos of the North cellar have them beat this year.
10. Iowa State -- Were one overthrown pass from (probably) beating KU in Lawrence. Oh, Austen Arnaud, you could have underthrown that pass and Darius Darks still would have scored. Oh, the humanity.
11. Colorado -- Put a scare into Texas thanks in large part to Texas doing everything it could to lose the game. Still, that's a lot better than...
12. K-State -- Jesus. Let us never speak again of what happened on the South Plains.

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Comments

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Funniest things I heard all week

" thinner than truck stop toilet paper " – Nice!

" 1. Nebraska " – I don’t know if I’d annoint them quite yet though they do get Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home this year. The rest of their schedule should be fairly manageable. I would bet on them losing at least one of those games (Oklahoma) and then losing a close game in the Big12 Championship.

by jboot1 on Oct 15, 2009 6:38 PM CDT reply actions  

Time for a bit of snarkiness...

Warning here come the comments from the cheap seats…or from the two guys in the balcony of the Muppet Show…take your pick.

  1. TB in regards to your earlier comment in question #1…I seem to recall KSU having no problem with Texas in recent years…short term memory?
  2. Suh is a beast but so is Weatherspoon from Mizzou. Suh should at least be considered.
  3. Bowden will not leave this year and has already stated he will be around in 2010. Don’t forget he has won a national championship at his school. Hawkins will likely be out if CU finishes dead last in the North.
  4. Unless K-State is mathematically eliminated you can’t count them out. They are simply tied for first at the moment. At least let them lose 2 more division games before you write them off indefinitely.
  5. Well we won’t be last…so we have that going for us.
  6. Texas by 3.
  7. K-State is #10 right now. If you beat a team on the field you don’t get ranked behind them…are you men AP voters or something? And yes I think K-State is better than CU and perhaps BU without Griffin.

by Catbacker98 on Oct 15, 2009 11:12 PM CDT reply actions  

As for the first question...

…yes, K-State beat Texas two years in a row, but the North teams have not consistently competed with the South teams since the early 2000s (2007 excluded). My point was not so much that North teams haven’t occasionally poached upsets (Colorado also beat Oklahoma in 2007), but more that North teams have not shown they can consistently compete with any South teams, Baylor and Texas A&M excepted. Yeah, we beat Texas in 2006 and 2007, but we also lost to Baylor. Even when Mizzou and KU have had their big seasons, they haven’t been beating the top dogs in the South.

Now, as for question seven, I’ve been waiting for a chance to lay this out, so here it goes. I agree that, very early in the season, it’s ridiculous to rank a team behind a team they have just defeated, with an example from this season such as Houston behind Oklahoma State. However, as the season goes on, it becomes inevitable that teams who took a head-to-head matchup will show that they are not worthy to be ranked ahead of the team they defeated. Last week, Iowa State took a ranked KU team to the brink, and probably would have won if Austen Arnaud had just had the sense to underthrow his receiver a little bit. Meanwhile, K-State went down to Lubbock against an unranked Texas Tech team, who hasn’t really looked all that great this year, and wasn’t even in the game after the first quarter. My point is this: saying that a team should be ranked ahead of another team simply because they beat them on the field assumes an objectivity and evenness of level of play that simply doesn’t exist in a game played by 18-22 year olds. To go back to the example from the first question, K-State beat Texas when they were a top-five team in 2006 and 2007. Would anyone argue that K-State deserved to be ranked ahead of the Longhorns, given the overall body of work of both teams? Maybe they would, but they’d be wearing coke-bottle thick purple glasses.

Anyway, I appreciate the comment as always, Catbacker98, but I disagree here. Maybe I overreacted a little in bumping K-State down to 12th after one game like that, but the plain fact of the matter is that if the Cats play like that the rest of the year, they won’t stay within two touchdowns of anyone, including Texas A&M and Colorado, on their schedule. The mandate of the power poll is to rank teams according to who you think would win on a neutral field right now. As Bill Snyder likes to say, at this particular point in time, I’m not confident that we can beat anyone in this conference on a neutral field. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, I’m just saying I’m not confident in predicting such a result.

We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats

by TB on Oct 16, 2009 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

We beat Iowa State by a blocked extra point and the grace of God

After watching us in Lubbock, I think Iowa State deserved to win and we just got lucky. It’s incumbent on the team to prove me wrong.

Right now, I don’t know that we can beat Colorado, but I know Iowa State damn sure should have beat KU. Let’s see how bad KU whoops us before we draw any lasting conclusions, but I suspect it won’t be as close as the game in Lawrence against the Cyclones was.

by BracketCat on Oct 16, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just my positive thinking maybe :) but I have to agree with catbacker98 here...

It’s like you just looked at the Tech game to rank the way you did. Teams like Texas Tech (high powered offenses) are just “on” some days and they were against us. Every pass precisely on the money. I don’t condone the way Kstate seemingly gave up after a few touchdowns, but several of the plays were defended well and still ended up scores for Tech. Momentum is huge in these cases, remember 70-10 vs Nebraska? Also, a hold on Tech and a no call facemask and helmet to helmet on Coffman on the same play at their 4 would’ve made it look closer. Would that change your opinion even though we were still dominated. Does 59-21 still make us last? No logical person would guess that if Kstate and Tech played again that the score would look like that. Are they better? Of course, but not the way the score indicated. Kstate has to be above Iowa State and Colorado and maybe even close to Baylor and A&M, but this weekend will speak to whether we give up and deserve to be 12th or could make the argument for 9th or even 8th in the future.

Wildcat for life

by mjk7166 on Oct 16, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions  

Giving up over 200 rushing yard to Iowa State makes us last

Making Austin Arnaud look like Ell Roberson makes us last.

Winning against all odds on a fluke play makes us last.

I didn’t change a thing because of the Tech game. It merely confirmed my worst fears after watching tackle whiffs all day in Kansas City.

by BracketCat on Oct 16, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just to clarify...

I just want to clarify a few of my points. My first comment to TB was only in reaction to his statement. “…They’re playing a high-powered, South division opponent, and in the last five years or so, none of the North teams have proven they can beat even the middling South teams consistently.” Given his later explanation I would agree with the North vs. South argument.
In terms of the rankings, I am not suggesting that K-State should have been ranked after the Texas wins. However, given your criteria, KSU has beaten Iowa State on a neutral field and both have the same record 3-3. You have to rank K-State ahead due to the head-to-head result. And honestly Colorado is not playing any better football than K-State right now. Remember K-State could have gone up 14-0 on Iowa State early in their game too, but ISU recovered the fumble and battled back the same way Texas did after coming out flat.
BTW I reviewed our records again against T-Tech and have found a troubling pattern. I believe we won the initial 3 meetings and since then they have poured it on us even in years we were ranked and/or went to a bowl. In the past four meetings they seem to have our number winning by at least 20 points on all occasions. It just seems that we do not match up well against them for whatever reason. The same way Texas seems to have trouble when playing us.

by Catbacker98 on Oct 16, 2009 8:48 AM CDT reply actions  

Clearly "us" amateurs can’t rate teams with accuracy

First congrats K-state nice bounce back against the Aggies. Now for your power rankings having the benefit of seeing all these games looks like KU has a weak defense. Texas Tech has a better than advertised defense. Nebraska has a sorry offense. Oklahoma is snake bit. Mizzou well I can’t say but it looked like they could hang with Oki elite but lacked the intestinal drive to do it. And The Cowboys really don’t have much of a defense. Texas u is the class of the Big 12. Aggies are in a tail spin. Baylor is still lacking depth. Again. Iowa state is clawing back – slowly. Colorado where has this crew been hiding?
So here’s the real power rankings ala Monday morning QB style.
 
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma —State
3. Texas Tech …
T4. Missouri
T4. Nebraska
5. Oklahoma
6.Kansas
7. Kansas State -
 8. Baylor
 10. Texas A&M
11. Colorado
12. Iowa State

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Oct 18, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions  

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