BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.30.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 1.29.2009 at 1:38 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 6 0 20 1
Kansas Jayhawks 5 0 16 4
Texas Longhorns 4 1 15 4
Missouri Tigers 4 2 17 4
Baylor Bears 3 3 15 5
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 2 3 13 6
Texas A&M Aggies 2 4 16 5
Kansas St. Wildcats 2 4 13 7
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2 4 12 7
Iowa St. Cyclones 1 4 12 8
Texas Tech Red Raiders 1 4 11 9
Colorado Buffaloes 1 4 9 10


A week ago, K-State had yet to beat a BCS team this season. Well, a lot can change in a week, although one thing remains the same: Kansas and Oklahoma are pulling away from the pack. Two consecutive wins fueled a decent jump in the standings for the Cats, and Colorado also ended a 4-game losing streak.

Baylor and Texas Tech are floundering with two consecutive losses apiece, Iowa State and Nebraska continued their free-falls with three straight defeats, and Oklahoma State has lost three of its last four. How does all this change the Big 12 Outlook?

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 15-1 3 11 6 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 2 13-3 25 16 24 Washington Massachusetts Bill Self
Texas 3 13-3 14 26 18 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Missouri 4 11-5 38 14 23 USC Nebraska Mike Anderson
Oklahoma State 5 9-7 28 36 37 Tulsa Baylor Travis Ford
Baylor 6 9-7 31 30 25 Arizona State Texas A&M Scott Drew
Kansas State 7 8-8 84 39 63 Missouri Oregon Frank Martin
Nebraska 8 6-10 94 64 81 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 9 6-10 42 82 65 Baylor Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 3-13 137 112 115 Houston Hawai'i Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 97 109 104 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 1-15 224 177 192 Iowa State SMU Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

Needless to say, Big 12 Outlook's failure to predict several of the week's outcomes correctly means there are some changes in this edition. The one constant, though, is Oklahoma. The Sooners are riding a 7-game winning streak and are clearly the class of the conference.

Kansas and Texas are not far behind, however, as both saw gains across the board to all computer numbers. Kansas is still projected to hold the head-to-head edge, though. These three teams remain the only NCAA tournament locks in the Big 12 thus far.

Texas and Missouri essentially switched places, and the Cats had a lot to do with that. They also traded projected records. I predicted earlier in the season that Missouri would slowly drop as they hit the meat of their schedule, but I admit that I lost faith in that prediction over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, it appears to possibly be coming true.

Oklahoma State and Baylor remained in the same positions relative to each other, but each gained a projected loss as their poor performance of late caught up to them. Their losing streaks mean the computer numbers are getting ugly, and each team had better find some wins soon if they want to keep dreaming about the Big Dance.

I am extremely pleased with K-State's current projection. I said last week in the midst of our doldrums that I would be happy with an 8-8 season, a No. 7 seed, and an NIT berth. While that remains true, the nature of Wednesday's big win (K-State's best of the season by far) has me starting to think a little bigger. If K-State can actually beat Texas Saturday, we might see the Cats jump into the top half of the conference projections. If they can hold serve at home, the bubble becomes a realistic possibility. One thing at a time, though.

Our gain was Nebraska's loss, obviously. Their win over K-State means nothing given that they have failed to win since. They have been consistently projected to lose in Manhattan, as well. Things are not looking good for Doc's bunch, and Texas A&M is barking at their heels. Only a projected win in a toss-up game is keeping the Huskers ahead of the Aggies right now.

The other real loser is Iowa State. Colorado? Seriously? Somebody couldn't get over almost beating Kansas, it looks to me. Despite uber-stud Craig Brackins, the Cyclones are beginning to look like the second-worst team in the Big 12, and after Tuesday, even that is in doubt.

Texas Tech is just irrelevant at this point. It appears Pat Knight is writing the sequel to Sean Sutton's bestseller, "Tripping and Breaking My Face on the Pavement While Wearing Daddy's Shoes."

I told you Colorado wouldn't go winless in conference play. That said, they're still clearly the worst team in the conference by far. I'm glad they won, though. Bzdelik is too good of a coach to get stuck with the ignominious donut.

Based on this week's results, Pomeroy now projects us to beat Texas A&M. He also now projects Oklahoma to beat Baylor in Waco, Texas to beat Missouri, and Texas A&M to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

Based on this week's results, Sagarin now projects Oklahoma to beat Missouri and Texas A&M to beat Oklahoma State in College Station. There were no other changes in the Sagarin projections.

 

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook was 3-3 this week, but I take some pride in the fact that I predicted the system would have a tough week. I knew four road wins was an outrageous expectation, but try telling a computer that. It usually gets pissed off and gives you a blue screen of death.

Obviously, I'm not going to complain that Pomeroy and Sagarin were both wrong about the Cats. No matter how many numbers you crunch, you can't simulate an important element: your gut. I've consistently said I do not believe Missouri is as good as the computers think or that we are as bad as they thought, and the Cats proved it this week. Remember your gut when you are filling out your brackets this March.

As you can see below, I like all the home teams to hold serve this week, except Iowa State, who is extremely unlikely to beat Oklahoma. Texas A&M and Texas Tech won toss-up games, however, so keep an eye on Nebraska and Oklahoma State. Maybe one or both of them will break out of their funk on Saturday. And while I believe K-State can beat Texas (something I did not believe last week, I admit), I still don't expect it. C'mon, Cats - surprise me.

 

Key

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
53 A&M
73 Kansas
55 Colorado
63 Tech
83 Baylor
65 K-State
97 Missouri
95 O-State
61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma
01.24
77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)
82 Kansas
67 I-State
86 Tech
97 Missouri
76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)
76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma
58 A&M
67 Texas
01.26-01.28
89 Oklahoma
81 O-State
78 Texas
72 Baylor
49 I-State
55 Colorado
72 Missouri
88 K-State
68 Kansas
62 Nebraska
70 Tech
79 A&M
01.31
Oklahoma (PS)
@ I-State
K-State
@ Texas (PS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (PS)
Nebraska (P)
@ Tech (RS)
O-State (P)
@ A&M (RS)
02.02-02.04
Kansas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri
@ Texas (PS)
Tech
@ O-State (PS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.07
Colorado
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ I-State
K-State (PR)
@ A&M (S)
O-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (PS)
@ Tech
02.09-02.11
Kansas
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Baylor
Colorado
@ I-State (PS)
Tech
@ K-State (PS)
02.14
A&M
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas (PS)
@ K-State
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (S)
@ Texas (PR)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (RS)
@ Missouri (P)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
SB Nation Featured Video
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Join Bring On The Cats

You must be a member of Bring On The Cats to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bring On The Cats. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker