BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.19.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 1.18.2009 at 3:03 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 3 0 17 1
Kansas Jayhawks 2 0 13 4
Missouri Tigers 2 1 15 3
Baylor Bears 2 1 14 3
Texas Longhorns 2 1 13 4
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2 1 12 4
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 1 1 12 4
Texas A&M Aggies 1 2 15 3
Iowa St. Cyclones 1 2 12 6
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 2 10 7
Colorado Buffaloes 0 2 8 8
Kansas St. Wildcats 0 3 11 6


Saturday told us a few interesting things. First, Kansas and Texas joined Oklahoma as the only Big 12 teams to win on an opponent's court so far this season. However, they beat Colorado and Texas Tech, possibly the two worst teams in the conference.

Second, Oklahoma added another good road win to its already impressive resume, and given that the Sooners host Kansas, they are already threatening to separate from the pack. They will probably lose a few conference games, but not many.

Third, Kansas State is bad, at least right now. The NCAA Tournament appears (at this juncture) to be completely out of the question. An upper-half finish even appears unlikely at this point. K-State would be well-served to first get a win, any win, and then worry about just getting to .500. For the Wildcats, winning more than one conference road game might be a tall order.

Hit the jump to see how the conference season's third data input shook up the projections.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 14-2 4 14 6 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Missouri 2 13-3 39 8 23 California Nebraska Mike Anderson
Kansas 3 12-4 38 18 37 Washington Massachusetts Bill Self
Texas 4 11-5 26 26 24 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Oklahoma State 5 11-5 22 33 33 Tulsa Baylor Travis Ford
Kansas State 6 9-7 100 32 62 Cleveland State Oregon Frank Martin
Baylor 7 9-7 35 34 29 Arizona State Texas A&M Scott Drew
Nebraska 8 6-10 76 61 74 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 9 5-11 42 74 56 Baylor Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 4-12 109 103 100 Houston Hawai'i Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 104 127 111 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 0-16 232 199 203 Colorado State SMU Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

You're probably wondering how Baylor and K-State flip-flopped when the former won and the latter lost ugly, aren't you?

Truth be told, it had nothing to do with what happened on Saturday. The only change in projections was that for this particular installment of Big 12 Outlook, the Wildcats won a coin toss against Texas A&M instead of losing like they had the last couple of times.

Given that a loss at Nebraska was projected before Saturday, the game had little impact other than in the minds of fans who may be growing impatient with K-State's poor play. At any rate, the battle for the No. 6 seed will certainly be determined on Wednesday in a toss-up game against Baylor that is virtually a must-win for the Cats.

Oklahoma's computer numbers are almost as high as they can go, but they picked up another projected loss because Texas gained back enough computer strength to "win" in Austin again. Frankly, the Sooners are playing so well right now that I really can't see them losing more than two conference games.

Missouri continues to see nice gains despite not beating a Big 12 opponent with a pulse. They are winning their home games by an impressive average of 30 points, however. I keep hoping the Tigers will be "exposed," but I am gradually coming around to the idea that they may be a Top 4 seed this year. They won't be No. 2, though.

At any rate, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and Texas appear to be locked in for now as the teams with byes in Oklahoma City, with Baylor and Oklahoma State having a chance to play their way into those spots in the weeks to come. Likewise, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Colorado are settling in nicely in the basement. The chief action is in the middle.

I am beginning to think Nebraska might be under-seeded, but I can't get that loss to Iowa State out of my head. Same goes for Texas A&M, but they're about to embark on a stretch that rivals K-State's opening gauntlet for difficulty, so that will probably change my mind.

For now, I believe K-State's 0-3 record is not reflective of where it will finish in the standings, but the Cats had better pick up a win soon or even the projections will start to reflect their suckiness. Clearly, they aren't as good as we hoped, but I still think this is a better team at home, and with their backs against the wall they could surprise Baylor, even though it looks on paper to be a difficult match-up defensively.

Based on Saturday's results, Pomeroy now projects us to lose at home to Missouri. He also now projects Texas A&M to win at Texas Tech and Nebraska to beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

Based on Saturday's results, Sagarin now projects us to lose to Baylor. He also now projects Texas to beat Oklahoma in Austin. There were no other changes in the Sagarin projections.

Big 12 Outlook was 6-0 on its picks for last Saturday. As you can see below, I like all home teams to hold serve this week, although Baylor at Kansas State and Missouri at Oklahoma State are clearly toss-up games that would probably go to the road teams if they were the ones hosting. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech should win comfortably against cellar dwellers, though.

 

Key

  • P - Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
  • R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
  • S - Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
61 Tech
73 Baylor
67 I-State
75 Texas
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
51 Missouri
56 Nebraska
61 A&M
72 O-State
01.12-01.14
63 Texas
78 Oklahoma
71 K-State
87 Kansas
53 Nebraska
65 I-State
62 Colorado
107 Missouri
73 Baylor
84 A&M
01.17
92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)
73 Kansas
56 Colorado
46 I-State
77 Missouri
51 K-State
73 Nebraska
69 Oklahoma
63 A&M
71 Texas
49 Tech
01.19-01.21
A&M
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Tech (PS)
Baylor (S)
@ K-State (PR)
Missouri (P)
@ O-State (RS)
Nebraska
@ Oklahoma (PS)
01.24
K-State (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State
Tech
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State (RS)
@ Nebraska (P)
Baylor
@ Oklahoma (PS)
A&M
@ Texas (PS)
01.26-01.28
Oklahoma (PS)
@ O-State
Texas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri (PS)
@ K-State
Kansas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Tech
@ A&M (PS)
01.31
Oklahoma (PS)
@ I-State
K-State
@ Texas (PS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (PS)
Nebraska (P)
@ Tech (RS)
O-State (PR)
@ A&M (S)
02.02-02.04
Kansas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri (PR)
@ Texas (S)
Tech
@ O-State (PS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.07
Colorado
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ I-State
K-State (PR)
@ A&M (S)
O-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (PS)
@ Tech
02.09-02.11
Kansas
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Baylor
Colorado
@ I-State (PS)
Tech
@ K-State (PS)
02.14
A&M
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Texas (PS)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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