BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.12.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 1.11.2009 at 3:09 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Oklahoma Sooners 1 0 15 1
Baylor Bears 1 0 13 2
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 1 0 12 3
Texas Longhorns 1 0 12 3
Nebraska Cornhuskers 1 0 11 3
Kansas Jayhawks 0 0 11 4
Colorado Buffaloes 0 0 8 6
Texas A&M Aggies 0 1 14 2
Missouri Tigers 0 1 13 3
Kansas St. Wildcats 0 1 11 4
Iowa St. Cyclones 0 1 11 5
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 1 10 6


10 of 12 teams have now played their conference opener. Hit the jump to see how the conference season's first data input, including at least one upset, shook up the projections.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Oklahoma 1 13-3 9 16 8 Kansas State Arkansas Jeff Capel
Baylor 2 12-4 44 30 21 Arizona State South Carolina Scott Drew
Kansas 3 12-4 49 25 40 Washington UMass Bill Self
Texas 4 11-5 21 27 22 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Missouri 5 11-5 55 14 24 Cal Nebraska Mike Anderson
Oklahoma State 6 10-6 20 38 34 Rhode Island Washington Travis Ford
Kansas State 7 9-7 112 20 55 Cleveland State Oregon Frank Martin
Nebraska 8 8-8 84 67 73 Missouri UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 9 4-12 48 86 69 Arizona Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 4-12 127 101 104 Houston Hawai'i Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 93 107 99 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 0-16 261 177 197 Colorado State SMU Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

 

Discussion

Now that's more like it.

The fraud that is Missouri basketball is now in its rightful place. Actually, I think they could finish a little lower, but this seems about right for now. I knew the initial projections were screwy.

Likewise, Oklahoma is where it should be, atop the bracket. The Sooners' numbers gained across the board, and we became their best win vis a vis Pomeroy. I guess we have that going for us.

Baylor received a slight bump from beating Tech, and OU's rise coupled with UT's fall broke the 4-way tie that was in place on Friday. Kansas' RPI went up, as Michigan State was a high-quality opponent, while the Jayhawks' Pomeroy suffered for the loss. Net effect on projected seed? Zero.

Missouri took a massive hit. Nebraska is now their worst loss (duh!), the numbers suffered across the board, and their seed plummeted. Oklahoma State received a sizable boost in RPI from beating Texas A&M.

K-State moved up in Sagarin by 1, but that was more than offset by the RPI falling to under 100. 9-7 seems about right for now. I no longer believe we are an NCAA Tournament team. (I know, I know - I was holding out hope...) The numbers are just undeniably bad right now. OU would have helped immensely. All projections have us losing at KU and NU, and Baylor is a toss-up. A 1-3 start pretty much screws our chances, and @OSU has now changed to a probable loss while A&M remains a toss-up. For now, I see a three-letter tournament in our future, and this is coming from a Kool-Aid-chugging optimist, mind you...

Nebraska had a good Saturday. Their projected record went from 6-10 to 8-8, their numbers increased nicely, and they posted their best win of the season in knocking off the Tigers. All of which makes Saturday's game in Lincoln even more daunting, of course, especially when you factor in that the Huggins-Martin-Hill brain trust has yet to win a game up there.

Texas A&M and Iowa State both saw their numbers increase despite losing. This is what happens when you finally play quality opposition. ISU in particular was impressive in dogging the Longhorns all day in Austin.

That pretty much confirms Texas Tech and Colorado as the two worst teams in the league. Somehow, Colorado's suckiness is such that their already-crappy numbers dropped sharply across the board despite not playing. That's simply marvelous.

Based on Saturday's results, Pomeroy now projects us to lose to Oklahoma State. He also now projects Nebraska to beat Oklahoma State. There were no other changes in the Pomeroy projections.

Based on Saturday's results, Sagarin now projects us to lose to Nebraska in Lincoln. He also now projects Oklahoma to beat Baylor in Norman. There were no other changes in the Sagarin projections.

As you can see below, I like KU, MU, and OU to win this week, and although ISU won a coin flip, don't sleep on Nebraska. Baylor should handle A&M, even in College Station.

 

Key

  • P - Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
  • R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
  • S - Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

 

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
73 Baylor
61 Tech
75 Texas
67 I-State
61 Oklahoma
53 K-State
56 Nebraska
51 Missouri
72 O-State
61 A&M
01.12-01.14
Texas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
K-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Nebraska (P)
@ I-State (RS)
Colorado
@ Missouri (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ A&M
01.17
O-State
@ Baylor (PS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ Missouri (PS)
K-State (P)
@ Nebraska (RS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ A&M
Texas (PS)
@ Tech
01.19-01.21
A&M
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Tech (PS)
Baylor (S)
@ K-State (PR)
Missouri (P)
@ O-State (RS)
Nebraska
@ Oklahoma (PS)
01.24
K-State (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ I-State
Tech
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State (S)
@ Nebraska (PR)
Baylor
@ Oklahoma (PS)
A&M
@ Texas (PS)
01.26-01.28
Oklahoma (PS)
@ O-State
Texas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri (S)
@ K-State (PR)
Kansas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Tech
@ A&M (PS)
01.31
Oklahoma (PS)
@ I-State
K-State
@ Texas (PS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ Missouri (PS)
Nebraska (PR)
@ Tech (S)
O-State (PS)
@ A&M
02.02-02.04
Kansas
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska (PS)
@ Colorado
Missouri
@ Texas (PS)
Tech
@ O-State (PS)
A&M
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.07
Colorado
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ I-State
K-State (P)
@ A&M (RS)
O-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (PS)
@ Tech
02.09-02.11
Kansas
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma
@ Baylor (PS)
Colorado
@ I-State (PS)
Tech
@ K-State (PS)
02.14
A&M
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado
I-State
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State (PS)
@ I-State
Nebraska
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PS)
A&M
@ Tech (PS)
Oklahoma
@ Texas (PS)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Baylor (PS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado
K-State
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech
Missouri
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor
@ Texas (PS)
K-State
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PS)
03.07
Tech
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M
Nebraska
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State
@ Oklahoma (PS)

 

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