BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 01.10.09


Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 1.8.2009 at 3:40 AM CST)

Conf Overall
W L W L
Texas A&M Aggies 0 0 14 1
Oklahoma Sooners 0 0 14 1
Missouri Tigers 0 0 13 2
Baylor Bears 0 0 12 2
Oklahoma St. Cowboys 0 0 11 3
Kansas Jayhawks 0 0 11 3
Kansas St. Wildcats 0 0 11 3
Texas Longhorns 0 0 11 3
Iowa St. Cyclones 0 0 11 4
Nebraska Cornhuskers 0 0 10 3
Texas Tech Red Raiders 0 0 10 5
Colorado Buffaloes 0 0 8 6


OK, the purpose of this feature is threefold:

  1. As you can see above, track the Big 12 standings in case you're lazy like me and don't want to go look them up.
  2. Use a variety of projection systems to offer real-time predicted outcomes of all upcoming games, updated biweekly after each "round" of conference games.
  3. Offer commentary on the NCAA hopes of conference teams (won't start with this until a little later in the season).

You can expect these on Sunday (after Saturday games) and Thursday/Friday (after Big Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday games). Hit the jump to see what the conference looks like as we head into the first week of games, starting tomorrow.

Seed* Record* RPI Pomeroy Sagarin Best Win** Worst Loss** Coach
Missouri 1 13-3 53 11 16 Cal Illinois Mike Anderson
Oklahoma 2 12-4 11 18 9 Purdue Arkansas Jeff Capel
Kansas 3 12-4 55 19 40 Washington UMass Bill Self
Texas 4 12-4 17 22 19 UCLA Arkansas Rick Barnes
Baylor 5 12-4 58 30 22 Arizona State South Carolina Scott Drew
Oklahoma State 6 10-6 32 42 37 Rhode Island Michigan State Travis Ford
Kansas State 7 10-6 93 14 56 Cleveland State Oregon Frank Martin
Nebraska 8 6-10 133 75 85 Creighton UMBC Doc Sadler
Texas A&M 9 4-12 51 87 68 Arizona Tulsa Mark Turgeon
Iowa State 10 3-13 136 105 106 Houston SDSU Greg McDermott
Texas Tech 11 2-14 91 109 101 New Mexico Lamar Pat Knight
Colorado 12 0-16 257 173 193 Colorado State SMU Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*Predicted
**According to Pomeroy rating

Discussion

The chart above is a projection of the seeds in the Big 12 Tournament. (I used preseason ranking order as tie-breakers.) Obviously, this is a very early projection and there are some wacky results. I can almost guarantee Colorado will win at least 1 Big 12 game. Moreover, Missouri is not going to win the regular season championship. I'm absolutely convinced most computers have the Tigers overrated right now.

Notice that K-State's 7th seed is a low projection (in this edition of Big 12 Outlook we "lost" at least 2 games on a coin flip) and it's still higher than our predicted preseason finish. If one of those flips goes the other way, we're sitting at 6th, and if they both do, we're in that mess of teams tied at 12-4.

In general, this projection is too top-heavy. The bottom teams will pull some upsets, and that will factor in more as Sagarin and Pomeroy collect more data. But it's an interesting first cut at the data, nonetheless.

As you can see from the tables below, all this information was derived from the best-estimate projection of what the conference game outcomes will be, given the most current data available. Games were decided by a "best out of 3" system; the "winner" was selected by at least 2 of my 3 prediction methods. Those are indicated by the letter codes next to each team's name.

Key:

  • P - Ken Pomeroy's rankings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
  • R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (I like to preserve the element of chance; for this exercise, it serves only as a tie-breaker; heads = home team, tails = road team)
  • S - Sagarin composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

I then took the results and plugged them into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order for all teams for your viewing pleasure. It's slightly more scientific than just plugging in wins randomly, but less systematic than Pomeroy's system, so it's right up my alley. Hopefully some readers will find this information useful/interesting/yet another way to waste time at work.

Predicted Outcomes

01.10
Tech
@ Baylor (PRS)
I-State (R)
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma (S)
@ K-State (PR)
Missouri (PRS)
@ Nebraska
A&M
@ O-State (PRS)
01.12-01.14
Texas (R)
@ Oklahoma (PS)
K-State (R)
@ Kansas (PS)
Nebraska (PR)
@ I-State (S)
Colorado
@ Missouri (PRS)
Baylor (PS)
@ A&M (R)
01.17
O-State
@ Baylor (PRS)
Kansas (PS)
@ Colorado (R)
I-State
@ Missouri (PRS)
K-State (PRS)
@ Nebraska
Oklahoma (PRS)
@ A&M
Texas (PRS)
@ Tech
01.19-01.21
A&M
@ Kansas (PRS)
Colorado (R)
@ Tech (PS)
Baylor (RS)
@ K-State (P)
Missouri (PR)
@ O-State (S)
Nebraska
@ Oklahoma (PRS)
01.24
K-State (PRS)
@ Colorado
Kansas (PRS)
@ I-State
Tech (R)
@ Missouri (PS)
O-State (PS)
@ Nebraska (R)
Baylor (S)
@ Oklahoma (PR)
A&M (R)
@ Texas (PS)
01.26-01.28
Oklahoma (PRS)
@ O-State
Texas
@ Baylor (PRS)
I-State (PS)
@ Colorado (R)
Missouri (S)
@ K-State (PR)
Kansas (PS)
@ Nebraska (R)
Tech
@ A&M (PRS)
01.31
Oklahoma (PS)
@ I-State (R)
K-State
@ Texas (PRS)
Colorado
@ Kansas (PRS)
Baylor (R)
@ Missouri (PS)
Nebraska (PR)
@ Tech (S)
O-State (PRS)
@ A&M
02.02-02.04
Kansas (R)
@ Baylor (PS)
I-State (R)
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska (PRS)
@ Colorado
Missouri
@ Texas (PRS)
Tech (R)
@ O-State (PS)
A&M (R)
@ Oklahoma (PS)
02.07
Colorado (R)
@ Oklahoma (PS)
Missouri (PS)
@ I-State (R)
K-State (P)
@ A&M (RS)
O-State (R)
@ Kansas (PS)
Texas (PRS)
@ Nebraska
Baylor (PS)
@ Tech (R)
02.09-02.11
Kansas
@ Missouri (PRS)
O-State (R)
@ Texas (PS)
Oklahoma (R)
@ Baylor (PS)
Colorado (R)
@ I-State (PS)
Tech
@ K-State (PRS)
02.14
A&M (R)
@ Baylor (PS)
Texas (PS)
@ Colorado (R)
I-State (R)
@ O-State (PS)
Kansas (R)
@ K-State (PS)
Nebraska
@ Missouri (PRS)
Tech
@ Oklahoma (PRS)
02.16-02.18
Texas (PRS)
@ A&M
I-State
@ Kansas (PRS)
Colorado
@ Nebraska (PRS)
O-State (PRS)
@ Tech
02.21
Missouri (PS)
@ Colorado (R)
K-State (PS)
@ I-State (R)
Nebraska (R)
@ Kansas (PS)
Baylor
@ O-State (PRS)
A&M (R)
@ Tech (PS)
Oklahoma (R)
@ Texas (PS)
02.23-02.25
Kansas
@ Oklahoma (PRS)
Baylor (PRS)
@ I-State
A&M
@ Nebraska (PRS)
O-State (PS)
@ Colorado (R)
K-State (R)
@ Missouri (PS)
Tech
@ Texas (PRS)
02.28-03.01
Colorado
@ Baylor (PRS)
I-State (R)
@ A&M (PS)
Nebraska (R)
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ O-State (PRS)
Oklahoma (PS)
@ Tech (R)
Missouri (R)
@ Kansas (PS)
03.02-03.04
Baylor (R)
@ Texas (PS)
K-State (P)
@ O-State (RS)
A&M (PS)
@ Colorado (R)
Kansas (PRS)
@ Tech
Oklahoma (R)
@ Missouri (PS)
I-State
@ Nebraska (PRS)
03.07
Tech (R)
@ I-State (PS)
Colorado (R)
@ K-State (PS)
Texas
@ Kansas (PRS)
Missouri (PS)
@ A&M (R)
Nebraska (R)
@ Baylor (PS)
O-State (R)
@ Oklahoma (PS)
X
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