Looking Into My Crystal Beer Glass: Big 12 North 2008
The people have spoken in my recent poll, and they have told me they want more posts looking at the 2008 football season. Ask and you shall receive.
Today, I will do what I did last summer and look at each Big 12 North team's schedule and make a wildly inaccurate prediction for each game. I stick to conference games because I really have no interest in picking games between BCS teams and South-Central Idaho Tech. In this post, I'll look at the North, in the near future I'll take an even wilder stab at the South.
Enjoy...
1. Missouri: I hate to brag, but last year I was the one who picked Missouri to win the North when everyone else said they'd Pinkel themselves in the big moment. With Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin back, I am once again picking Mizzou to represent the North, this time in nearby Kansas City. Here's how I see MU's conference schedule breaking down.
Predicted Finish: 7-1
10/4, @ Nebraska: Win for MU. I get it. Mizzou hasn't won in Lincoln since the Magna Carta was written. But Nebraska's defense has a couple (thousand) question marks, and we've seen what Daniel, Maclin and Pinkel can do to a defense that isn't on top of its game. I find it hard to believe the change in the teams and the game's venue is worth five touchdowns this year.
10/11, vs. Oklahoma State: Win for MU. It may be one helluva shootout, because I doubt OSU's defense will do much to stand in MU's way. Probably will be the first solid conference test of Mizzou's defense, as I expect Nebraska's offense will be more like sparklers than shock-and-awe.
10/18, @ Texas: Loss for MU. Mizzou has much more than a fighter's chance in this one, but in games you get up for (and Mizzou has become a team you get up for), Texas is tough to beat in Austin.
10/25, vs. Colorado: Win for MU. While improved, Colorado will wilt in Columbia.
11/1, @ Baylor: Win for MU. Not much to say here. Art Briles will find out MU's offense makes Tulsa's look like pee-wee football.
11/8, vs. K-State: Win for MU. Hate picking against my Cats, but last time we went to Columbia it was a thorough disaster. Last year in Manhattan wasn't much better.
11/15, @ Iowa State: Win for MU. See comments on the Colorado game.
11/29, vs. KU (at Arrowhead): Win for MU. A week to prepare and a KU team that will still be solid, but not up to last year's standard.
2. KU: Unsurprisingly, my KU predictions last year were by far my most inaccurate, but who can say they predicted the first EF6 tornado? Yeah, didn't think so. A tougher schedule should bring less success this year for the 'beakers, but I don't see a precipitous drop.
Predicted Finish: 4-4
10/4, @ Iowa State: Win for KU. Just can't see ISU firing on more than two of its four cylinders at this point.
10/11, vs. Colorado: Win for KU. Even in Lawrence I think the Buffs will be a test, but KU gets by with a passing grade.
10/18, @ Oklahoma: Loss for KU. The best team in the conference. On the road. Yeah, this one will be tough.
10/25, vs. Texas Tech: Loss for KU. This one is a very close call for me. With defense as its strength, KU is one of the teams that has a chance to slow down Tech. But Tech has a habit of neutralizing good defenses, and I'm not sure KU can score enough points to keep up if they do.
11/1, vs. K-State: Win for KU. Ouch. It's a rivalry game, after all, so you never know, but I'm only betting on K-State in this one if I'm playing with house money.
11/8, @ Nebraska: Win for KU. The 'beaks are yet another team that hasn't won in Lincoln since Christopher Columbus sailed the ocean blue, but this is their best chance.
11/15, vs. Texas: Loss for KU. Another game in which KU will probably be more competitive than I'd like to admit, but I see the Horns pulling it out. Plus, I'd pay good money to see another Mark Mangino press conferece where the main subject is, that's right, dollar signs.
11/29, vs. Missouri (at Arrowhead Stadium): Loss for KU. See above comments.
3. Colorado: I guess I'm repeating the popular refrain for the team from Boulder. I expect steady improvement from Colorado again this season. Nothing spectacular, no break-out season, but improvement.
Predicted Finish: 4-4
10/4, vs. Texas: Loss for CU. Not a very warm reception to conference play with the Horns coming to Boulder. At least it's in Boulder...I guess.
10/11, @ KU: Loss for CU. Tough start to conference play.
10/18, vs. K-State: Loss for CU. OK, my homerism has now surfaced. But K-State has really had Dan Hawkins' number, handling CU handily in Boulder two years ago and in Manhattan last year.
10/25, @ Missouri: Loss for CU. Am I really predicting 0-4 for CU? I'm probably insane.
11/1, @ Texas A&M: Win for CU. New coach. Average players. And yet, a home loss to a mediocre North school. Get me a straight-jacket and some electro-shock therapy.
11/8, vs. Iowa State: Win for CU. Could be an interesting look at two programs that are probably on their way up, be it ever so slowly. That said, CU is further along than ISU.
11/15, vs. Oklahoma State: Win for CU. Pokes will be gasping for air in the moun-ains.
11/28, @ Nebraska: Win for CU. The Buffs absolutely rammed Nebraska last year, and as much as Husker fans don't want to admit it, last year does still have some bearing on this year. This is a total toss-up game for me.
4. K-State: Probably the biggest wildcard in the conference this year. If the "gamble" on the junior college recruits pays off, a solid season may be had. If not...*shudder*
Predicted Finish: 3-5
10/4, vs. Texas Tech: Loss for K-State. What's this? A conference opener at home? Unfortunately, it's against the loaded Red Raiders. A win would set the tone for a successful conference campaign.
10/11, @ Texas A&M: Loss for K-State. It pains me to pick this one, and I think it should be a tight game, but I can't pick us in the home of the 12th Man.
10/18, @ Colorado: Win for K-State. Cats pull out a victory when they need it most.
10/25, vs. Oklahoma: Loss for K-State. Could this be a Texas-2006-style upset? I doubt it, but I certainly hope so.
11/1, @ KU: Loss for K-State. Gag. See above.
11/8, @ Mizzou: Loss for K-State. Sigh.
11/15, vs. Nebraska: Win for K-State. Pelini accuses Prince of not running the score up on NU.
11/22, vs. Iowa State: Win for K-State. Total opposite of last year's season finale, and maybe, just maybe enough to push K-State into the postseason.
5. Nebraska: Not much place to go but up for a team that went 2-6 in conference last year. Will we see improvement under Bo Pelini? Who knows, but we do know his press conferences should be far more entertaining than Bill Callahan's.
Predicted Finish: 2-6
10/4, vs. Missouri: Loss for NU. See above. Mizzou is pretty good this year.
10/11, @ Texas Tech: Loss for NU. On the bright side, with Pelini at the helm, they shouldn't give up 70 points this time.
10/18, @ Iowa State: Win for NU. Probably a tougher game than NU partisans will want, but I don't see the Clones having enough to pull it out.
10/25, vs. Baylor: Win for NU. Art Briles finds Lincoln is a more difficult road destination than...Rice.
11/1, @ Oklahoma: Loss for NU. The biggest drama coming from this game should be whether Pelini can one-up Callahan's "fucking hillbillies" comment from four years ago.
11/8, vs. KU: Loss for NU. See comments above.
11/15, @ K-State: Loss for NU. This one comes with an asterisk, specifically because I'm assuming that Ron Prince's players will still be trying at this point.
11/28, vs. Colorado: Loss for NU. A home loss to the Buffs won't sit well with the natives, especially if it denies the Huskers a bowl trip.
6. Iowa State: Gene Chizik probably knows what he's doing, but it's going to take him a while to prove it in Ames.
Predicted Finish: 1-7
10/4, vs. KU: Loss for ISU. See comments above.
10/11, @ Baylor: Win for ISU. Art Briles learns ISU is a little tougher than...Rice.
10/18, vs. Nebraska: Loss for ISU. See comments above.
10/25, vs. Texas A&M: Loss for ISU. Probably a decent chance for a home win against a team with a new coach. But if I picked A&M to lose this one, who would I pick them to beat? Yeah, it worries me to think about it, too.
11/1, @ Oklahoma State: Loss for ISU. Tough trip to Stillwater.
11/8, @ Colorado: Loss for ISU. See comments above.
11/15, vs. Missouri: Loss for ISU. The Clones were surprisingly tough in Columbia last year, but I don't see them getting it done this year.
11/22, @ K-State: Loss for ISU. See comments above.
Though I don't know how anyone could possibly disagree with such airtight logic, post your thoughts in the comments.
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3-5
You’re even more optomistic than I am. I just don’t know how we’re going to get to 3 wins even. That “shudder” of something like a 1-7 conference record seems scarily possible. Who’s going to be our star that delivers big plays for us this year? Leon Patton? Oh wait. Is someone going to be wide open down the field for Freeman 10 times a game like last year? I hope so. Is Deon Murphy going to be around? I had heard he wasn’t at school Spring Semester for some reason or another.
I would be thrilled with a 3-5 conference record, an upset of Louisville (who I don’t think is that good heading into this year), a 7-5 overall record, and bowl game appearance.
by iDoc21 on Jul 10, 2008 8:09 AM CDT 0 recs
Couple thoughts
I’m not terribly worried about the offense this year. Losing Jordy will hurt, but we have some good athletes at receiver. Deon Murphy was in school this spring, but Prince held him out of spring practice because he needed to get his grades in order. It appears he has done so. Losing Patton is my biggest worry, but we’ll hope Daniel Thomas qualifies and picks things up quickly. Having an improved offensive line should help.
Defense is my real concern. If the JuCo guys brought in to plug the gaps from last year don’t pan out, we’re going to have to score a whole lotta points to keep up.
As far as a disaster record like 1-7, I’m confident the chances of that are pretty small. I think the game with Louisville is eminently winnable, and we should be able to handle the other three in the non-con.
We'll carry the banner high!
by TB on
Jul 10, 2008 11:26 AM CDT
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Who exactly is on the way up?
I keep hearing this thing about teams being on the way up – especially on other blogs and “expert predictions.” But here are my North predictions:
Iowa State is on the way up. Really? They went 1-7 in conference in 2006 and then 2-6 last year with a senior quarterback and a pretty damn good receiver. I agree with TB’s assessment that they will probably go either 1-7 or 2-6.
Colorado on the way up? Maybe, but I’m still not sold. 4-4 record is a good prediction given their South schedule.
KU – back to reality. Not quite the 0-8 and 1-7 like seasons past, but not the cakewalk schedule they had last year. 4 conference wins maximum – and that’s if they beat the teams they probably should beat.
Missouri – back and loaded. I can see them going 8-0, but that’s damn near impossible in the big 12.
Nebraska – don’t know how they’ll do this year. Maybe the thrashing of the Cat’s D last year is still fresh in my mind, but I think they’ll post more than 2 conference wins. Probably 3 though.
KSTATE – uggg. This is probably the toughest one to judge because a lot of the players that will get playing time, haven’t taken a single snap in D-1. It’s a crapshoot anywhere from 2-5 wins in conference, but I think three will be most likely win a win over a team TB says we’re going to loose and a loss over a team TB says we’re going to win. Hey – that’s just how we’ve played under Prince – rare road wins and inconsistent at home.
Man do I hate Longhorn fans, well except for the ones that actually went there.
by mystman995 on Jul 10, 2008 11:59 AM CDT 0 recs
When I said...
...certain teams would improve or be on their way up, I should clarify that I didn’t necessarily mean it would show up in their conference record. Colorado at 4-4 would be the same as last year, but I think they’ll be at least as good of a team, if not slightly better, overall than last year. Iowa State at 1-7 would be a step back from last year, but I think Chizik is getting things in place to show some future improvement.
Nebraska is another wildcard for me. They have their OC and a good QB back, so they should be solid if not spectacular on offense. But their defense is questionably talented, and because I don’t wear scarlet and cream, I’m not sold that Pelini will be the resurrectionist the Husker partisans claim. At least not this year.
We'll carry the banner high!
by TB on
Jul 10, 2008 12:57 PM CDT
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