Bring On The Cats: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Has Kentucky Improved Since the Non-Conference Season?

What a Schedule is Worth

In the offseason, we have chances to look into things we would otherwise ignore. Things such as 90s pop culture and alter-ego columnists, for example. But it also gives us a chance to take deeper looks at important issues we otherwise wouldn't sufficiently explore during the season.


This summer, the hottest topic has undoubtedly been scheduling.

As mentioned previously, I got in a bit of a tete-a-tete with Kyle over at Dawg Sports regarding scheduling, after he named Texas Tech one of his four "most overrated" teams heading into this season. We discussed and settled our misunderstandings, but I believe it's time for me to make my position fully known.

By way of additional background, others have been discussing scheduling this offseason, most notably The Wizard of Odds. In numerous posts, the Wizard wants you to know that you, Mr(s). College Football Fan, are being ripped off because your team is playing a bunch of patsies.

That is a proposition I question. In his most recent post on the subject, the Wizard examines each conferences' number of home/road non-conference games, as well as number of games against I-AA/FCS competition. Unsurprisingly, the Big 12 is at or near the top in most categories, including second in most home non-con games since 1998 and second in number of I-AA/FCS opponents since 1998. A different post from the Wizard more specifically finds that K-State has amassed the following statistics since 1998: less than 20 percent of non-con games have been against BCS conference schools, only four non-conference games on the road (second-fewest in the nation...behind Auburn), and nine games against I-AA/FCS teams (tied for most with that school down the river). Finally, Kyle noted that the rise to prominence of teams such as K-State and Texas Tech has been, in some ways, a chimera.

Where do I begin?

Let's start with whether we're being ripped off as football fans by our teams playing such weak schedules. I will admit first of all that my four years at K-State were 2002-2006, which encompassed some of the highest highs of Bill Snyder's tenure, followed by some of the lowest lows. The first two years, 2002 and 2003, saw two 11-win seasons, a Big 12 championship, and a BCS bowl appearance. The last two saw losing records and no bowl games. Here were the non-conference slates for 2002 and 2003:

2002: Western Kentucky, UL-Monroe, Eastern Illinois, Southern California

2003: Cal (at Arrowhead Stadium), Troy, McNeese State, Massachusetts

Looking back, I can truthfully state that the only two games of those mentioned above for which I stayed until the end were the Southern California and Cal games. The other six games were well in hand by halftime, and I (along with most of my friends) retired to the parking lot or our apartments for some other entertainment.

Based on that, I suppose the Wiz would say I wasn't getting my money's worth out of my tickets. However, I believe most K-State fans would argue quite the contrary. Both years, we had one good matchup that provided an entertaining game, while the other three games provided tuneups for our powerhouse Powercat machine to prepare for the cauldron that was Big 12 play. Snyder's teams were notoriously slow starters, and for the sake of having a good team ready for conference play, I was willing to watch a few big blowouts. They provided some entertaining highlight reel plays (watching Ell Roberson toy with those defenses was pretty damn fun) and they gave backups a chance to get some experience to prepare for the inevitable injuries that befall a team in conference play.

Further, the hard stats, at least as they relate to K-State, do not bear the Wiz out on this. Here is the average attendance at K-State home games since 1999, along with the non-conference home games (and opponents' records) played that year:

1999: 51,136 (Temple (2-9), UTEP (5-7), Utah State (4-7))

2000: 50,260 (Louisiana Tech (3-9), Ball State (5-6), North Texas (3-8))

2001: 48,541 (New Mexico State (5-7), Louisiana Tech (7-5))

2002: 48,082 (W. Kentucky (12-3 I-AA), UL-Monroe (3-9), E. Illinois (8-4 I-AA), Southern California (11-2))

2003: 47,110 (Troy (6-6), McNeese State (10-2 I-AA), Massachusetts (10-3 I-AA))

2004: 48,405 (W. Kentucky (9-3 I-AA), Fresno State (9-5), UL-Lafayette (4-7))

2005: 45,961 (Florida International (3-7), North Texas (2-9))

2006: 46,693 (Illinois State (9-4 I-AA), Florida Atlantic (2-9), Louisville (12-1), Marshall (5-7))

2007: 47,383 (San Jose State (5-7), Missouri State (6-5 I-AA/FCS))

As this information should make fairly clear, attendance at K-State seems to correlate much more strongly with what happened the year before and with the quality of that year's team than with who is on the non-conference schedule. Our highest average attendance was in 1999 (and we know all too well what happened in 1998). Our fourth-highest average attendance during that span came in 2004, when we played W. Kentucky, Fresno State and UL-Lafayette in the non-conference. The reason? We won the Big 12 title the year before. The average that year would have been much higher, except it became abundantly clear early in the season that we weren't very good.

Fans will turn out to watch a winner. We could have played Emporia State and Fort Hays State during 2002 and 2003 and we still would have drawn pretty much the same crowds. Why? Because the product on the field was entertaining. We had a fast, swarming, bone-crushing defense, and offensive skill players that ran the option to perfection. It was a beautiful sight.

Moving away from whether or not fans are getting ripped off by watching games against crappy opponents, we should next address whether it's good for college football to have elite teams playing weak schedules. I would argue the biggest scheduling problem facing college football is not elite teams playing weak schedules, but rather the non-uniformity of scheduling. Last year, KU was a perfect example of this. Nobody knew how good they really were, because they did not play a team with a pulse in the non-conference. The 'beaks were further cursed by playing a bunch of conference opponents who were flawed to varying degrees, not to mention they missed Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Not until the Border War did they have a chance to measure themselves against a truly quality opponent, and for most of the game, Missouri kicked them around the field like Quantrill's men kicked around Lawrence.

We also saw the problem of non-uniform schedules in the selection of Ohio State for the national title game. The Buckeyes played a non-conference schedule that was probably not much stronger than KU's, they beat a bunch of conference opponents who were flawed to varying degrees, and they somehow came out of the mess and faced LSU in New Orleans. We all know how that turned out.

I am not suggesting the NCAA should start making schedules, or that there should be rules governing the process. The last thing we need is another NCAA rule. But until we give schools an incentive to face stronger competition, there is absolutely no good reason for them to do so. I used to take great offense to the national media belittling Bill Snyder for playing weak schedules for two reasons. First, they often were not as weak as they appeared (games against BCS opponents such as Iowa, Cal, and USC pop readily to mind). Second, there was absolutely no good reason for a team like K-State to play a tough schedule. I suppose we could have been hurt had the selection of a national title opponent come down to a popularity contest between the Cats and some other one-loss team, but Snyder's justified demeanor toward the media ensured we wouldn't win such a contest anyway.

One more point should be made here. Criticism directed at schools scheduling weak is often directed their way by the upper crust of the college football world. It's pretty well-known around Manhattan that K-State tried to schedule the Dukes of Windsor of the college-football world, but those deals fell apart for one of two reasons. Either the other school wanted a 2-for-1 series, or the other school wanted to play a home-and-"home" with the K-State end of the "home" deal played at Arrowhead Stadium.

What's the big deal, you say? Look at Big 12 athletic department operating budgets. The numbers in that post are from a couple years ago, but they fairly reflect the relative spending power of each Big 12 school. I should also mention that Texas isn't even the richest athletic department in the nation. Ohio State outspends Texas, and I believe Florida may also outspend the Horns. Anyway, the point is this: there are schools in the country that can spend two or three times more money on sports than K-State. The point of all this is that K-State doesn't have a whole lot of money to begin with, and what we do have comes primarily from football. Home games are our lifeblood, and giving them up means a ton of foregone revenue. Put simply, if we want to have something resembling a full athletic department, we can't try to please the critics by playing a bunch of road games at Michigan, LSU and Florida. Financially, it's not worth it.

Finally, I must briefly address Kyle's "chimera" comment. During Bill Snyder's tenure at K-State, the Cats amassed 10 seasons of nine or more wins, three division titles, one Big 12 title, two BCS games, and 11 bowl appearances overall. In those 11 bowl appearances, the Cats went 6-5. Thus, while I will concede that, given more difficult non-conference schedules, the Cats likely would not have totalled as many nine-, 10-, and 11-win seasons, the other numbers speak for themselves. You don't win division titles, a conference title, and six bowl games based entirely on who you played in September, you win them primarily with the quality of the team you put on the field. Also, given the results from our infrequent forays into non-conference games with elite opponents, Cal and USC being the primary examples, I am somewhat reluctant to concede that we would have lost a whole lot of non-conference games even had we upgraded the schedules.

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Bring On The Cats

Another topic for your discussion...

Apr 2008 by TB - 3 comments

Catching Up: Airlines Suck Edition

Feb 2008 by TB - 4 comments

More Sunday Reaction

Nov 2007 by TB - 0 comments

Comments

Display:

I'm all for ISU playing the sisters of the poor....

And you’re completely correct that there’s no incentive for a lot of major colleges to schedule difficult teams unless they are part of a BCS race. Teams like ISU and K-State have a lot more incentive to pile up 3 or 4 sure wins and be able to get a bowl game despite not getting a .500 conference record.

by CrossCyed on Jul 12, 2008 3:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Even...

...back in the day, when we were good, I’m not sure it did us much good. I mean, playing USC in 2002 was fun and all, but it clearly didn’t do much for us when we lost to Texas later in the year. And the Cal game in 2003 didn’t matter after we lost Roberson for several games. Honestly, until they bring strength of schedule back as a component of the BCS, there is NO incentive for even top-flight teams to play tough non-con schedules.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jul 12, 2008 9:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

zzzzzzz......

This story should have a warning label on it:

Do not read at work after a huge lunch. You might fall asleep.

Man do I hate Longhorn fans, well except for the ones that actually went there.

by mystman995 on Jul 14, 2008 1:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ouch!

Possibly my loyalest reader, and I’m putting him to sleep.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jul 14, 2008 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I pretty much already read it before

I was over at Double T Nation awhile back and Seth in his morning notes had a link to dawgsports about it and read about your little interactions with Kyle.

And believe me it’s definitely the double burrito lunch that’s making me sleepy.

Man do I hate Longhorn fans, well except for the ones that actually went there.

by mystman995 on Jul 14, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

TB is a drug-dealing terrorist sexual predator!!!

O.K., none of those things are true. Actually, TB’s a good guy all the way around. I was just trying to keep you from falling asleep.

By the way, you know who else thinks out-of-conference scheduling is fascinating? She does:

In fact, Katherine Heigl has agreed to appear on the bowl selection special after the conference championship games and remove one item of clothing for every regular-season matchup between two ranked teams on live television. You know, like the strip foosball game from that movie she did before she was famous.

All right, that’s not true, either . . . but it kept you interested, didn’t it?

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jul 15, 2008 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

[borat voice]Verry nice![/borat voice]

Thanks for bringing a little, ahem, color to the comments, Kyle.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jul 15, 2008 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No problem

Just trying to keep folks from nodding off.

We’re almost through the offseason, guys. Hang in there; we’ll make it through together.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jul 15, 2008 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm awake I'm awake.

Nice.

Man do I hate Longhorn fans, well except for the ones that actually went there.

by mystman995 on Jul 16, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I HATE non-conference games against 1-AA pasties

But I understand how the difficulty in getting non-conference opponents to come into your stadium can be when you don’t have great tradition and/or a large market. Its only the last ten years that we’ve been able to get decent teams to come to Eugene, and up the road in Corvallis, Oregon State still can’t get a decent team to come there, and they’ve been good for quite awhile.

We don’t really schedule a lot of 1-AA games, but try to get a lot of games against decent non-BCS competition—Boise State, Utah, Fresno, etc. But we are always looking for good non-conference games, even in smaller markets. The fact that we’ve scheduled a true home-and-home with your Cats will attest.

I think Oregon’s philosophy tends to be that the national championship is too unpredictable to try and schedule your way into one, so lets get some good, entertaining games. We usually play anyone that will give us a home and home because, not only is that a program’s lifeblood, as you’ve stated, but programs such as Oregon and K-State have earned that at this point.

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by Addicted to Quack on Jul 15, 2008 12:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, Dave

Thanks for stopping by and commenting.

I wouldn’t mind if we stopped scheduling I-AA/FCS teams, but in the grand scheme of things, are Sun Belt teams really a big step up in scheduling? No. I like the idea of bringing in one good, entertaining game per year, whether it be a solid non-BCS school (as long as it’s not Fresno State) or just about any team from a BCS conference. But there is simply no need to beat your brains out against four tough non-con teams each year, unless you’re Colorado and can’t draw fans to your stadium unless you do.

Alas, I wholeheartedly agree with your last paragraph. You can’t predict when you may have a national-title caliber team, and even when you do, unless you play a real murderer’s row, you should be able to beat who’s on your schedule if you’re MNC-caliber…right?

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jul 15, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good points there, Dave

Oregon and Oregon State are excellent examples. Consider:

Georgia has played the Ducks once and the Beavers three times. All four games were in Sanford Stadium. In 1977, in Rick Brooks’s first game as Oregon’s head coach, the Pac-10 team traveled to Athens to open the season. The Bulldogs won, 27-16. There was no return game.

The Red and Black likewise hosted O.S.U. in 1971, 1974, and 1987, winning all three games and hanging 56, 48, and 41 points on the Beavers, respectively. The ‘Dawgs never journeyed to Corvallis.

Why is this? Partly, this is due to the fact that, for the 40 years in which Vince Dooley (first as head coach, then as athletic director) had control over the Bulldogs’ schedule, Georgia didn’t travel outside the South. (This, incidentally, had not been the case under Coach Dooley’s predecessors, as Herman Stegeman, George Woodruff, Harry Mehre, and Wally Butts all made a habit of playing in Boston, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, New Haven, New York, and Philadelphia. Fortunately, when Damon Evans took over as athletic director in 2004, he immediately began arranging cross-sectional games with other B.C.S. conference teams.)

Part of this, though, was the fact that Georgia could make such demands at that time. In 1977, the Bulldogs were coming off of back-to-back top 20 seasons in which the Red and Black appeared in the Cotton and Sugar Bowls to cap off the 1975 and ‘76 campaigns. The Ducks, in the meantime, hadn’t had a winning season since 1970, hadn’t won more than six games in a season since 1964, and hadn’t been to a bowl game since 1963. The two teams simply weren’t on anything like equal footing.

The same held true for Oregon State in the years the Beavers played the ‘Dawgs. Although O.S.U. came into the 1971 campaign without having had a losing season since 1964, the Beavers had won more than seven games just twice in the previous 13 years.

Oregon State arrived in the Classic City in 1974 following back-to-back 2-9 seasons and bound for the Beavers’ fourth straight losing campaign in a streak that would stretch to 28 in a row before being broken by Dennis Erickson in 1999. It is no wonder that the 1974 O.S.U. club played all four of its non-conference games on the road: at Syracuse, at Georgia, at Ohio State, at S.M.U.

By the time the Beavers began the 1987 campaign with a loss between the hedges, Oregon State was riding a stretch of 15 straight falls featuring three (1974, ‘78, ‘85, and ‘86), two (1972, ‘73, ‘76, ‘77, ‘83, and ‘84), one (1975, ‘79, ‘81, and ‘82), or no (1980, when Georgia was busy going 12-0) wins. Needless to say, O.S.U. went 2-9 in 1987.

That was then, this is now. While Georgia went through, and came out of, a lengthy downcycle in the mid-1990s, both Pac-10 teams put together impressive runs. After a 30-year stretch (1964-1993) covering all or part of the tenures of five coaches, during which the Ducks attended a Freedom Bowl and two Independence Bowls, Oregon made it into postseason play a dozen times from 1994 to 2007, including two Holiday Bowls, three Sun Bowls, a Cotton Bowl, a Fiesta Bowl, and a Rose Bowl. Likewise, the Beavers broke a 34-year postseason drought in 1999 and have since attended six bowl games in the last eight years, including a Sun Bowl and a Fiesta Bowl.

As a consequence of those changes in on-field performance and off-field perception, Georgia and Oregon signed a deal to play a home-and-home series that will see the ‘Dawgs traveling to Eugene in 2015. When Georgia offered to do a two-for-one deal with Oregon State (with whom the Bulldogs have exchanged baseball series the last two seasons), the Beavers turned it down. Where O.S.U. earlier was willing to visit Athens three times without hosting the Red and Black even once, the Beavers now are unwilling to play in Sanford Stadium twice in exchange for getting the ‘Dawgs in Corvallis once. That’s a sea change over where the world was just 20 years ago.

The problem Pac-10 teams encounter is that the list you gave--“Boise State, Utah, Fresno, etc.”—really doesn’t have much in the way of an et cetera; those three and B.Y.U. are the respectable mid-majors in the West. The drop-off from the Broncos, the Bulldogs, the Cougars, and the Utes to the next tier (Air Force, Nevada, San Jose State, et al.) is fairly stark, and there are only so many Pac-10 teams Boise State and Fresno State can play in the course of a given season. (This increased demand helps explain why the Broncos and the Bulldogs have been able to get some Pac-10 teams to travel to Boise and Fresno.)

The Pac-10 doesn’t have the built-in geographic advantage of some other B.C.S. conferences. Big Ten teams can schedule match-ups with the Big East and the M.A.C., and S.E.C. teams can schedule match-ups with the A.C.C. and Conference USA, because those leagues have ready-made non-conference games in close proximity. Likewise, there are enough Southwest Conference castoffs and wannabes in the Lone Star State to keep Big 12 South slates filled with schedule fodder in Texas recruiting hotbeds. The Pac-10, having no such natural rivalries nearby and playing in the Pacific time zone, finds it necessary to travel more.

To their credit, Pac-10 teams have done this, which is why Pac-10 teams schedule so few patsies, but one of the unintended side effects of positive changes like the twelfth regular-season game and the media attention given to marquee intersectional match-ups is that, as teams like Oregon are in a position to make greater demands, teams like Georgia have more incentive to meet them halfway.

I, for one, am looking forward to seeing the ‘Dawgs play in Tempe in September, as well as in Boulder, Eugene, and Stillwater in upcoming seasons. It’s good for the sport and it’s good for the fans. No one wants to see a good team playing a patsy. Although some lower-tier opposition is obligatory, everyone ought to play at least one quality out-of-conference opponent a year. I’m glad to see that happening, whatever the reasons for it.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jul 15, 2008 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A new record has been set!

That is, without a doubt, the longest comment ever at BOTC.

In all seriousness, though, excellent points, Kyle.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jul 15, 2008 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks . . .

. . . but I just spotted a typo, darn it.

Obviously, it’s Rich Brooks, not Rick Brooks.

I should’ve stuck to semi-safe-for-work Katherine Heigl photos.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jul 16, 2008 7:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

...I wish I could type that many words and only commit the offense of one typo.

We'll carry the banner high!

by TB on Jul 16, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Kansas State Wildcats.
Start posting about the Wildcats »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Locations Showing Iowa State Game
Small
Iowa State Channel Guide
Small
Good TV news for everyone about Saturday's game
Catbreathe_small
A little football love
Small
Martin on ESPN for Gameday
Kstex-logo_small
2010 K-State Football Schedule Finalized.
Get_image_small
Recovery
Nyroyal3a_small
The sticking point in the Frank Martin contract extension negotiations
Get_image_small
A Wal Mart Story
Lynchwillietwitter_bigger_small
Open letter to 610 Sports Radio: we have to break up

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Manager

Dsc01361_small TB

Frye_small Panjandrum

Editors

Touchdown_frank_small EMAW

2008-8_small BracketCat

Official Partner of CBS Sports